Forrester: AI, geopolitics to reshape factories by 2026

Forrester has forecast a sharp shift in how manufacturers and mobility providers plan and run their operations by 2026, driven by geopolitics, artificial intelligence and changing consumer expectations.

The research firm's latest outlook for smart manufacturing and mobility predicts new roles for supply chain leaders, cautious progress in humanoid robotics, and a broader spread of robotaxis beyond their current strongholds.

It also points to a regulatory pushback against large in-car touchscreens in Europe, as safety agencies press car makers to restore more physical controls.

Supply chain shift

Forrester expects more than half of global manufacturers to change the focus of supply chain leadership from cost control to growth in the year ahead.

The forecast describes a move away from traditional economies of scale. It says manufacturers are rebuilding supply chains as networks that favour resilience over pure cost efficiency.

This shift includes changes in where and how goods are produced. It reflects efforts by companies to rebalance production geographies in response to trade tensions, conflict and policy shifts.

Forrester says supply chain leaders face broader responsibilities in this environment. Many are being asked to take a larger role in setting and delivering overall corporate strategy.

The firm notes that geopolitical uncertainty remains high. It also points to sustained customer demand for choice and customisation, which increases complexity in manufacturing and logistics.

Robotaxis expand

Forrester predicts that commercial robotaxi services will spread beyond China and the US during 2026, although growth will remain selective.

The report highlights plans in Europe and Asia. Volkswagen aims to operate its MOIA autonomous vans without safety drivers in Hamburg from next year. UK embedded AI company Wayve plans to carry paying passengers in London in 2026.

Waymo has already completed test drives in Japan. The company and other US-based robotaxi fleet operators still focus most expansion on their home market.

Forrester says asset-light ride-hailing firms are more ambitious internationally than robotaxi fleet owners. It expects companies such as Lyft and Uber to appear in almost all overseas robotaxi deployments in 2026.

Humanoids held back

The outlook is more cautious on humanoid robots. Forrester predicts that only a small number will earn revenue for useful work during 2026.

The firm says advances in embodied AI promise significant change in autonomous mobility and various forms of robotics. It expects humanoid designs to benefit from these advances over time.

For now, it argues that humanoids still suffer from flaws that limit practical use in factories. It advises manufacturing leaders with near-term work requirements to focus on other automation tools instead.

These include smarter drones, collaborative robots and robotic arms. Forrester sees these systems as more mature for industrial deployment in the short term.

Screens under pressure

Forrester also expects European vehicle safety rules to slow the spread of touchscreens that replace physical controls in car interiors.

New assessment criteria from Euro NCAP will apply from January. Under the new rules, cars that lack physical controls for safety-critical functions will not qualify for a five-star rating.

The affected functions include turn signals and windscreen wipers. The change challenges car makers that have relied on touch-based interfaces for these tasks.

Forrester notes that physical switches add cost, weight and wiring complexity. It says many manufacturers have favoured screens as a cheaper and simpler approach.

Safety assessors, drivers and some designers now argue that screen-driven interfaces have gone too far in the name of simplification and cost reduction. Forrester expects this pushback to influence cockpit design over the next product cycles.

The firm also points to a potential shift from screens towards voice control. It says car makers are working with providers such as Cerence AI on new speech interfaces.

These systems use generative AI to offer more natural conversation. They differ from earlier, more rigid voice command systems. Forrester notes that foundation models for language remain at an early stage in automotive use.

Global pressures

Forrester links these separate trends under a broader theme of disruption facing manufacturers and mobility providers.

Paul Miller, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester, said companies face a complex blend of threats and opportunities in 2026.

"Geopolitical uncertainty, rebalancing where products get made and used, robots, and the influence of AI give manufacturers plenty to think about in 2026 as they walk the line between durable business transformation and expensive experiments. In the U.S., manufacturers looking to increase domestic manufacturing capabilities must learn lessons from elsewhere to address a shortage of skilled labour. In Europe, automotive safety assessments will play their part in slowing the spread of screens. And, around the world, manufacturers will expect their supply chain leaders to step up and worry less about procuring the cheapest parts and more about supporting growth by resiliently anticipating customer need," said Miller.