AI PCs to make up 31% of global shipments by end of 2025

Gartner forecasts that AI PCs will account for nearly a third of global PC shipments by the end of 2025, with a significant increase expected in the following year.

According to Gartner, shipments of AI-enabled PCs will reach 77.8 million units in 2025, representing 31% of the worldwide PC market. The research and consultancy firm also projects that AI PCs will constitute 55% of total PC shipments in 2026, with volumes rising to 143 million units by that time.

Market context

Gartner's estimates indicate that AI-powered laptops will achieve a greater share within the laptop segment compared to desktops. In 2025, AI-equipped laptops are anticipated to represent 35.7% of the total laptop market, while AI desktop PCs are expected to constitute 16.4% of the desktop segment.

The firm's projections see a continued rise in the prevalence of AI PCs beyond 2026, with the expectation that by 2029 such devices will become standard within the personal computing landscape.

Adoption trends

Despite the increasing availability of AI PCs, Gartner notes that adoption rates are being tempered by several market factors in the near term. Speaking on these trends, Ranjit Atwal, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner, stated:

"AI PCs are reshaping the market, but their adoption in 2025 is slowing because of tariffs and pauses in PC buying caused by market uncertainty. Nevertheless, users will invest in AI PCs to ensure they are prepared for the growing integration of AI at the edge."

These market uncertainties are manifested as businesses and consumers reconsider or postpone new PC purchases. Tariff changes affecting the technology sector have also contributed to this cautious spending behaviour.

Processor preferences

Preferences in AI PC processor platforms differ between businesses and consumers, according to Gartner's analysis. The firm forecasts that Arm-based laptops will secure a larger proportion of the consumer market as compatibility issues are resolved. In contrast, business users continue to favour x86-based Windows laptops. For 2025, x86 is expected to account for 71% of the AI business laptop market, with Arm-based offerings making up 24%.

Software investment

Gartner anticipates a major shift in software vendor priorities as AI PCs become more widespread. The firm expects that, by the end of 2026, 40% of software vendors will focus their investments on developing AI capabilities that run directly on PCs, compared to a figure of just 2% in 2024.

Additionally, the adoption of small language models (SLMs) that operate locally on PCs is set to increase. Gartner reports that, while no SLMs were running on devices in 2023, by 2026 multiple such models will be available on PCs.

SLMs enable advanced AI features to function directly on the end device, rather than relying on cloud infrastructure. This approach offers several benefits, including reduced latency, lower energy consumption, and improved data security.

The report notes that SLMs are particularly well suited to provide task-specific intelligence. As AI processing remains on the device itself, both user and business data are better protected compared to cloud-dependent models.

PC vendor strategies

To capitalise on projected AI PC growth, Gartner highlights the need for hardware manufacturers to offer user-focused, customisable solutions. Atwal added:

"The future of AI PCs is in customisation. It lets users configure their devices with the apps, features and functions they want. The more users interact with a vendor's AI PC, the better the vendor understands them, allowing for ongoing improvements and stronger brand loyalty."

Gartner's analysis suggests that vendors looking to unlock new growth in the PC market should place a greater emphasis on software-defined platforms that cater to specific roles and industry uses, moving beyond solely hardware-focused product development.

Gartner's market share and shipment data underscore the rapid transformation underway in the global PC market, shaped by the increasing prevalence and importance of integrated artificial intelligence capabilities at the device level.