Aurora launches India Grid Service amid curtailment rise
Wed, 19th Aug 2026 (Today)
Aurora Energy Research has launched an India Grid Service for the country's power market, starting in Rajasthan.
The launch comes as renewable curtailment in India has risen sharply and electricity demand has reached new highs. Curtailment increased from 0.07 TWh in January 2025 to 2.68 TWh in May 2026, while India's electricity demand touched 270 GW during the summer.
The subscription service is designed to help developers, investors, lenders and power buyers assess renewable energy curtailment risk, grid capacity and transmission connectivity across India's electricity network.
It will initially cover Rajasthan before expanding into Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. Aurora said these markets account for more than 80% of India's renewable energy development pipeline.
Grid constraints have become a bigger issue as renewable capacity has grown faster than transmission infrastructure in several regions. Aurora's findings show that about 12 GW of renewable capacity across Rajasthan and Gujarat faces curtailment of up to 100% because of delayed transmission links.
This has added to uncertainty for project developers and investors trying to forecast plant output and revenue. The issue is also drawing broader financial and regulatory attention, with credit rating agencies warning that curtailment could affect more than 35 GW of renewable capacity by FY27.
Regulators are also considering compensation claims from developers affected by transmission delays, according to Aurora. These pressures have increased demand for more detailed analysis of local network constraints before investment decisions are made.
Rising pressure
India has rapidly expanded its renewable energy fleet, but in some areas the grid has struggled to absorb new supply without operational limits. Aurora said 11% of the country's solar generation was curtailed this summer to maintain reliable and secure grid operations.
The service offers node-level forecasts intended to show where curtailment risk is emerging, how much grid capacity is available and how transmission bottlenecks may affect project performance. Aurora said the model was built on more than 10,000 hours of research and tested against Rajasthan's historical curtailment data for 2025, where it achieved 97% backcast accuracy.
Rajasthan has become an early focus because of the scale of renewable development there and the strain it has placed on the local network. Gujarat, another major renewable market, has also come under growing pressure from project build-out and slower grid reinforcement.
For lenders and investors, curtailment risk can change assumptions about cash flow, debt service and project viability. Developers also face tougher decisions on site selection and timing when transmission projects fall behind schedule.
Aurora's wider grid modelling work already covers more than 10 international power markets. The India launch extends that approach into one of the world's fastest-growing renewable electricity systems.
Debabrata Ghosh, Country Head, India, Aurora Energy Research, said: "India's renewable energy pipeline continues to grow, but the pace of grid expansion will play an important role in determining how quickly new projects can come online. As transmission constraints become more visible across the market, developers, investors and lenders need a clearer understanding of where these risks exist so they can make more informed decisions and deploy capital with greater confidence."
Vijay CS, Research Lead, India, Aurora Energy Research, said: "Rajasthan's rapid renewable energy growth has created increasingly complex grid conditions. Detailed modelling at node level provides a clearer picture of where curtailment risk is emerging and how local grid conditions could influence project performance."