Forrester warns AGI is accelerating, driving urgent workforce change
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is advancing at a pace that suggests it is set to become a practical reality rather than a distant concept, according to new research from Forrester.
The report, titled 'The Quiet Roar of Artificial General Intelligence,' has found that the complexity of AI tasks has doubled every seven months since 2019, while the costs associated with foundation models have decreased by 1,000% over the past three years. This rapid progress is reshaping expectations about AGI's arrival and potential impact.
Defining AGI
Forrester's Vice President, Emerging Tech Portfolio, Brian Hopkins, underscored the firm's focus on a practical, rather than purely theoretical, definition of AGI. He stated,
"We define AGI through a pragmatic and functional lens: software that can autonomously act in pursuit of goals across domains by learning new skills, collaborating with humans and machines, and building software tools."
Hopkins explained that by framing AGI in terms of functional capabilities, Forrester's definition moves away from drawing comparisons to human intelligence or relying on abstract economic measures. Instead, the approach is to offer business leaders clear benchmarks that can be used to monitor the technological evolution of AI, especially regarding practical applications within enterprise settings.
Stages of advancement
The research outlines a four-stage developmental path for AGI: the competent stage (domain-specific with supervision), independent stage (cross-domain with minimal oversight), strategic stage (autonomous across multiple domains), and superintelligent stage (functioning independently across all knowledge domains).
Current AI systems are cited as examples of early AGI, with the capacity to handle tasks such as building computer vision models, generating peer-reviewed academic papers, and competing in mathematics competitions at a high level. These capabilities are seen as evidence of technical complexity advancing at an unprecedented rate.
Critical inflection points
The report identifies three critical inflection points that will determine AGI's development trajectory: overcoming technical challenges, the extent of investment, and geopolitical influences. According to the analysis, AGI could either stabilise at any stage or accelerate rapidly through the stages, depending on these factors. One of the projections suggests that costs for fully autonomous systems could potentially reach as high as $128 quintillion, highlighting the scale of resources that could be required.
Workforce implications
The research points to significant ramifications for employment, with AGI expected to drive considerable workforce transformation across industries. Forrester advises that enterprises should begin preparing now by developing AI readiness programmes. According to the findings, AGI is likely to reshape the organisation of knowledge workers and give rise to digital workforces that operate alongside human teams.
Global stability at stake
The introduction and spread of AGI carries broad implications for global stability, the report notes. On the one hand, AGI could help solve distribution issues and raise global living standards. On the other, it could concentrate economic and technological power, heighten geopolitical competition, and leave middle-income populations at a disadvantage.
Mike Gualtieri, Vice President and Principal Analyst at Forrester, commented on the immediate trajectory of AGI:
"While AGI's long-term trajectory remains uncertain, what's directly ahead is not: over the next five years, AI systems will evolve toward competence and increasing independence. The foundations organisations lay now in AI readiness, governance, and workforce preparation will determine whether they thrive or struggle as AGI reshapes every aspect of business. This isn't a distant future concern; it's happening today, and enterprises need to start thinking about it now."
The research prompts organisations to consider the necessity of immediate action in terms of policy, training, and investment to navigate the changes AGI is expected to bring.
